Near-miss reports should be measured in hours not distance.
Astronomer Gene Shoemaker pointed out that distance looses meaning when one is referring to two objects traveling at unimaginable speeds. A seven-digit distance is quickly covered when the converging meteorite is traveling at a six-digit speed. Combined with the planet's orbital speed, the reality of a "near miss" means we have been as little as minutes away from celestial catastrophe—it's only a matter of time!
Nobody is searching for a
doomsday rock.
A handful of scientists are looking for several
doomsday rocks, a bunch of which are going to bump into Earth—given enough time, this is inevitable.
Below are just a few of the documented asteroids
that have narrowly missed Earth in the last eight years. Keep in mind that thousands of miles in celestial terms translates into mere hours when the speed and direction of our planet and the
near-Earth objects (NEOs) are taken into account. Also, bear in mind that in 1908 an area of hundreds of square
kilometres was devastated in Tunguska, Siberia by an object less than 60
meters in diameter—small in comparison to some recently identified NEOs
listed below that fortunately missed or will miss us.
1996: an asteroid 450 meters across traveling at 93,000 kph
was spotted just four days before crossing our path.
1998: the XF11 (1.6 km wide), traveling at 60,000 kph
and due in 2028, was first thought to hit but may pass a close as 48,000 km.
1998: OX4, several 100 meters in diameter
and scheduled for a close encounter in 2046, is lost.
2000 September: a 531 meter asteroid
was in astronomical terms a close shave at 3.86 million
kilometres.
2002: NT7, initially believed to be on collision course,
is due in February 2019.
2002 March:
this rock was discovered four days after it had passed within 461,000
kilometres.
2002 August:
NY40, 800 meters wide, was so close it was visible with binoculars.
2003: QQ47
is another close call due to whiz past in March 2014.
2004 January 13:
AS1 was believed to have a 1 in 4 chance of striking the planet with 36 hours. Also, at 500 meters across,
it was much bigger than previously thought.
2004
March 18: 2004FH, at a mere 43,000 kilometre fly past, was again visible with binoculars.
2004: MN4,
another celestial bullet-burn and 400 meters wide, is due on April 13, 2029.
2006 February 23:
observation confirms asteroid 2004 VD17, a level 2 Torino Scale threat,
is scheduled within the next century. It's estimated to have a diameter of about 580
meters and would produce an impact crater about 10 kilometres wide, causing an earthquake of magnitude 7.4 if it struck land on May 4, 2102.
New smaller asteroids are being found at an alarming rate. Each discovery does not reduce
but increases the odds.
An astoundingly large list of
NEOs is being compiled at NASA... [more]
Other warnings! Residents in Australia heard a sonic boom and saw a blue streak across the horizon, a large space boulder
that passed through our atmosphere in August 2002. A fireball streaking through the sky was caught on film in Alberta, Canada, in 1971.
Scientists estimate that it would have caused an explosion several times bigger than Hiroshima, had it struck the Earth's surface (BBC Horizon documentary, March 1999).
When a meteor lit up the sky in Washington State on June 3, 2004, residents
feared a nuclear attack [more].
Gravitational Tractor Illustration Credit & Copyright: Dan Durda
